Reading Time: 3 minutes

Here’s The Real Reason Housing Prices Could Crash (Not Mortgage Rates)

By Last Updated: October 31, 2023
Reading Time: 3 minutes

The Talk of the Town: 8% Mortgage Rates

The Internet is ablaze with whispers of rising interest rates—specifically, mortgage rates crossing the 8% threshold. Pundits and armchair economists alike are heralding this as the catalyst that will burst the housing bubble. But what if I told you that the detonator has already been pressed? The bubble, at least in real terms, has popped. We’re merely waiting for the nominal price tags to reflect the impending doom. Yet, mortgage rates are only a piece of this convoluted puzzle. There’s a story that’s dangerously underreported, a financial equivalent of an iceberg lurking beneath the surface.

The Mortgage Myth: Locked in but Not Safe

The prevailing narrative among the bullish crowd in the real estate market is that no one will sell their houses because they are “safely” locked into 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. “Job salaries are rising nominally, so who cares?” they argue. But have they considered the full spectrum of homeownership costs? It’s as if the mortgage is the only line item on their balance sheet. This tunnel vision is misleading at best and financially catastrophic at worst.

The Elephant in the Room: Other Costs of Homeownership

Let’s cut through the noise. Insurances, taxes, maintenance—these are the neglected stepchildren in the family of homeownership expenses. A recent article from Yahoo, originally sourced from the Miami Herald, puts a spotlight on this. Homeowners are thinking about “going bare”—which, mind you, has nothing to do with nudist colonies. It means ditching property insurance. Why? Because premiums have doubled in recent years.

The Hard Numbers: A Case Study from Florida

In the Sunshine State, the cost of insuring your home shot up to $6,000 a year in 2023—a jaw-dropping 42% spike from just a year prior. That’s roughly an extra $250 a month out of homeowners’ pockets, not including escalating property taxes and maintenance costs. So what happens when these costs skyrocket while the mortgage payment remains the same? Financial ruin, that’s what. And don’t get me started on property taxes. Do you honestly think local governments aren’t salivating at the prospect of reassessing your home’s value to squeeze more money out of you? You, my friend, are the proverbial turnip they can’t wait to juice.

The Domino Effect: From Ditching Insurance to Forced Selling

So what’s the first crack in the dam? People are dropping property insurance as a desperate measure to hang on to their homes. But what happens when a natural disaster strikes? What if, God forbid, a hurricane sweeps through Florida, and half of its homeowners have just dropped their insurance? It’s a precarious high-wire act. Homeowners are sacrificing long-term security for short-term financial relief. They’re not just risking financial ruin; they’re practically inviting it with open arms. Andrew Hernandez, a seasoned professional in Miami’s real estate market, stated he’s never seen anything like this, not even after the hurricane that ravaged parts of South Miami in 1992.

Damaged homes and debris are shown in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Fort Myers, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

The Fed’s Involvement: Stirring the Pot

Let’s throw in another variable. The Federal Reserve is hell-bent on increasing unemployment rates. Imagine, just for a moment, that you lose your job. Can you still afford that fixed monthly sum? Probably not.

The Full Picture: It’s More Than Just Mortgages

The bottom line is that when analyzing the housing market, especially the supply side, one must consider all these factors, not just fixed-rate mortgages. The situation is complex, and turning a blind eye to these elements is like ignoring the writing on the wall.

So, are we heading toward an unprecedented housing crisis, or is this just fear-mongering? One thing is clear: the stakes are high, and the clock is ticking. Ignoring the multifaceted realities of homeownership could be a financial disaster waiting to happen.

Share This Story, Choose Your Platform!