The ‘Sell America’ Narrative Is Back

And It’s Just as Wrong as Last Time

Written by Rebel Capitalist AI | Supervision and Topic Selection by George Gammon | January 21, 2026

If you’ve been watching financial headlines over the past 24 hours, you’ve probably seen some version of this claim plastered everywhere: “Global investors are dumping U.S. assets.” According to the mainstream narrative, rising Treasury yields, a falling dollar, and a spike in gold are all evidence that the world has finally lost confidence in America.

CNBC didn’t even bother framing it as a question. Their headline flatly declared that this is the “Sell America” trade...U.S. assets tumbling as global capital flees.

The problem is that we’ve seen this exact movie before. Recently. And it didn’t end the way the narrative suggested.

Back in April, during what George jokingly referred to as “Liberation Day,” the same storyline dominated markets. The dollar plunged. Long-term interest rates spiked.

Commentators breathlessly announced that the Fed had lost control of the curve and that foreign investors...especially China...were dumping Treasuries in protest of Trump’s policies.

And then…two weeks later, everything reversed. The dollar recovered. Yields fell back below prior levels. U.S. equities marched to new highs. The “Sell America” trade quietly vanished.

What that episode revealed...and what today’s episode reinforces...is that these moves are not driven by ideology, politics, or some sudden moral judgment on the United States. They’re driven by mechanics. Forced positioning. Crowded trades. And sudden unwinds when large institutions get caught offside.

Why the Narrative Sounds Plausible...and Why It Falls Apart

On the surface, the story makes intuitive sense. Trump threatens tariffs. Investors panic. Capital flees U.S. assets. End of story.

But scratch just one layer beneath the surface and the logic collapses.

If global investors were truly “selling America,” why are we seeing the exact same move...only larger...in Japanese government bonds? Ten-year JGB yields have surged even more aggressively than U.S. Treasuries. Are investors suddenly punishing Japan because they’re angry at Donald Trump? Of course not.

This is the tell that the narrative is wrong.

When you see synchronized moves across multiple sovereign bond markets, the explanation is almost never political. It’s structural. Something mechanical is forcing repositioning across global rates markets.

In this case, the most likely culprit is large hedge funds and financial institutions being forced to unwind trades after getting caught offside. A sharp headline...whether it’s tariffs, Greenland, or some other geopolitical flare-up...becomes the catalyst, not the cause.

The Dollar Isn’t “Collapsing”

Yes, the dollar sold off sharply. But context matters.

Even after the drop, the DXY is still trading around a 99 handle. That’s not a collapse. That’s where the dollar was trading for much of last year...including after the previous so-called “Sell America” episode.

Back in April, the dollar briefly plunged to the mid-90s. Commentators panicked. And then the index rebounded right back to where it started.

That pattern is repeating.

Knee-jerk reaction. Volatility spike. Mean reversion.

If this were a true capital flight, you wouldn’t see such rapid stabilization. You’d see sustained pressure, failed rallies, and structural weakness. That’s not what the chart is showing.

Interest Rates: Noise at the Long End

Much of today’s drama centers on the long end of the curve. The 10-year Treasury jumped six to seven basis points in a single session, while the two-year barely moved.

That’s a classic bear steepener...and it’s exactly the kind of move you see during positioning unwinds.

George has been very clear about this point for years: in late-cycle environments, directional bets on interest rates are noisy, but curve trades are far more informative.

In fact, this is why steepener trades make sense at this stage of the cycle. Whether inflation surprises to the upside or recession fears intensify, the curve tends to steepen...either through the long end rising or the front end falling faster.

That’s not ideology. It’s math.

Japan Completely Destroys the Debt Narrative

If there’s one argument that refuses to die, it’s the idea that rising yields are caused by “bond vigilantes” revolting against debt and deficits.

Japan completely obliterates that theory.

Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio today is lower than it was in 2014. Let that sink in. Despite a decade of supposedly reckless policy, Japan’s debt burden has improved. Yet JGB yields just experienced one of their largest short-term spikes in years.

If debt and deficits were the driver, this move would have happened years ago...not suddenly, over the course of a few days.

What actually changed?

Nominal GDP and inflation expectations.

Japan recently printed roughly 4% nominal GDP growth, while the 10-year JGB was trading near 2.3%. That’s historically low. The recent spike isn’t a rejection of debt...it’s the market rapidly repricing inflation expectations that were previously misjudged.

Once again, the scary narrative sounds plausible until you look at the data.

What This Means for Stocks

Despite today’s selloff, George made a very specific...and very unpopular...prediction: this entire move is likely erased within a week.

That’s not because the economy is strong. It isn’t. The labor market is deteriorating, GDP is vulnerable, and the U.S. economy is clearly late-cycle.

But markets don’t trade the economy in real time. They trade liquidity, positioning, and psychology.

Until the labor market deterioration materially hits GDP, bad news remains good news. Tariffs become a reason to expect Fed cuts. Volatility becomes a reason to buy the dip. The passive bid remains intact.

That dynamic only changes when economic weakness becomes undeniable.

We’re not quite there yet.

Gold and Silver: Counterparty Risk, Not Inflation

One of the most misunderstood moves recently was the surge in precious metals.

Gold didn’t rally because of inflation fears. Silver didn’t spike because of industrial demand.

They moved because of counterparty risk.

Over decades of data, gold’s strongest correlation isn’t with CPI or the dollar...it’s with geopolitical stress and financial-system risk. When trust erodes, gold rises.

Silver, as always, rides gold’s coattails...but with far more volatility. When it catches up, it moves fast. And that’s exactly what we saw, with silver up nearly 6% in a single session.

These moves say less about inflation and more about uncertainty.

The Bigger Picture: Noise vs. Signal

It’s tempting to view every violent market move as the start of a new regime. But most aren’t. Most are noise.

The real signal will come when:

• Labor market deterioration accelerates.

• GDP meaningfully rolls over.

• Corporate earnings fall in aggregate.

That’s when bad news becomes bad news.

Until then, episodes like today are best understood as mechanical unwinds amplified by headline risk and narrative laziness.

Don’t Trade Headlines

Markets love simple stories. “Sell America” is a great story. It’s dramatic. It’s political. It fits neatly into existing biases.

It’s also wrong.

The dollar isn’t collapsing. The bond market isn’t revolting. Global investors aren’t staging an ideological boycott of U.S. assets.

What we’re seeing is positioning stress, curve dynamics, and a market that remains fundamentally addicted to liquidity.

Until that addiction breaks, these panics will continue to resolve the same way they always do: quickly, violently, and then quietly reversed.

Prepare accordingly.