“All That Glitters Is Not Gold”: The Illusion of a Resilient Job Market
Ladies and gentlemen, brace yourselves. The U.S. job market is not what it seems. The recent jobs report boasted an impressive 336,000 new jobs for the month of September. But don’t pop the champagne just yet. The devil, as they say, is in the details.
The Surface-Level Mirage
The jobs report made headlines, touting a resilient economy with 336,000 new jobs. Sectors like leisure and travel even showed a gain of 96,000 jobs. But something smells fishy. Is the economy really booming, or is this just a façade?
The Multiple Job Holders Phenomenon
The report reveals a record number of multiple job holders. We’re not talking about a comedy skit here; this is the grim reality. People aren’t just working one job; they’re juggling two, three, or even more to make ends meet.
The Seasonal Shenanigans
The numbers also appear to be inflated due to seasonal adjustments. One sector, leisure and hospitality, allegedly added 96,000 jobs. However, unadjusted data shows the sector actually shed 466,000 jobs in September.
⚠️ I wonder how much of the payrolls upside is to do with seasonal quirks more than anything. Take Leisure & Hospitality. Official adjusted data shows this add +96k jobs. But unadjusted data shows sector shed 466k jobs in Sep. Unadjusted private sector payrolls was -399k 🤷♂️ $USDpic.twitter.com/ME1VFf4RHp
The Establishment Survey, which gives us the headline number, counts jobs, not people. So if one person holds multiple jobs, each job is counted separately. The Household Survey, however, counts people, not jobs. And according to this survey, only 86,000 newly employed workers were added, the lowest since May.
Government Hiring: A False Positive
The unadjusted numbers show that the government sector added 984,000 jobs, while the private sector lost 399,000 jobs. More government jobs do not signify a healthy economy; they signify an economy heading towards inefficiency and stagnation.
The Tsunami That’s Coming
The Unemployment Rate Paradox: A Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery
How can the unemployment rate remain at 3.8% when the number of unemployed workers rose to 6.3 million, the highest since January 2022? It’s a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Something doesn’t add up, and the clock is ticking.
The Seasonal Adjustment Scam: A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing
The seasonal adjustments seem to be more of a manipulation than a reflection of reality. Without these adjustments, the job numbers would likely be in the negative. It’s not a sheep; it’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and it’s about to pounce.
The Final Verdict: A Ticking Time Bomb
The job market is not as rosy as it appears. The surge in part-time jobs, the decline in full-time positions, and the record number of multiple job holders are all red flags. Add to that the questionable seasonal adjustments and the surge in government jobs, and what you have is not a booming economy but a ticking time bomb.