“History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.” – Mark Twain
If you’ve ever cruised along a highway only to have the dashboard suddenly light up red, you know the feeling.
That’s the U.S. economy this week. For months the engine hummed, the gauges looked fine—then came the latest labor market data.
Non-farm payrolls added just 22,000 jobs, a pitiful miss against the 75,000 expected. Worse still, June was revised from +14,000 to –13,000. Actual job losses.
The question now: when has payrolls gone negative without a recession following close behind?
The Cracks Widen
The bad news didn’t arrive all at once. It began Tuesday with JOLTS…job openings fell to 7.2 million, well under forecasts of 7.4 million. Employers aren’t just slowing hiring; they’re retreating.
On Thursday, ADP private payrolls limped in at 54,000, far below the expected 75,000. Then came jobless claims, ticking up to 237,000. Not catastrophic, but consistent with softening.
And Friday? The knockout punch. 22,000 jobs. June negative. Traders spilled their coffee.
Charts from mainstream outlets now show a freefall in job creation. Down, down, down. Like a snowball rolling downhill, momentum gathers.
But here’s the real rub: negative payroll prints rarely happen outside of recessions—except during freak events like hurricanes or strikes. This time? No storms, no strikes, just weakness.
So what happens next?
Listen to this episode with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Rebel Capitalist News Desk to listen to this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.
