The Jobs Report That Shook Expectations…Or Did It?
Last week’s economic data hit like a curveball, starting with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ non-farm payroll numbers. The headline figure came in at a solid 130,000 new jobs, blowing past the expected 55,000.
At first glance, that screams recovery…a labor market firing on all cylinders, right? But hold on. What if those flashy numbers are hiding a much grimmer reality underneath?
Diving into the details, the revisions tell a different story. November’s job gains got trimmed by 15,000, dropping from 56,000 to 41,000. December saw a smaller cut of 2,000, revising down to 48,000.
Minor tweaks on their own, sure, but then came the benchmark revisions stretching back to March 2025. Those slashed the totals by a whopping 898,000 jobs.
Suddenly, the entire year’s growth for 2025 shrinks from 584,000 to just 181,000. That’s barely a decent monthly haul spread over 12 months. So, is the economy really surging, or are we just catching up to a year that was far weaker than anyone admitted?
These constant downward adjustments raise a big red flag.
If 2025 looked rosy based on initial reports but turned out dismal after revisions, why trust today’s 130,000? The pattern of cuts…month after month…suggests the current figures might face the same fate. And if that’s the case, what does it mean for the broader picture of growth and stability?
Yields React…But Not How You’d Think
