The world’s largest mining companies ran a consensus survey and came up with a number. $250 billion. That’s the minimum capital required over the next ten years just to maintain copper production at current levels. Not grow it. Keep it flat.
They don’t have it. They’re $100 billion short.
On top of that, copper demand is growing at 2.2% compounded annually. So even if they somehow close that $100 billion gap and tread water for a decade, demand is still outpacing supply the entire time. The market is already in deficit today. We’re consuming more than we’re producing right now.
Rick Rule has been investing in natural resources for nearly 60 years. He just got done sitting through a copper presentation at Metals Week in London. His read: the supply problem is worse than the market is pricing in, and the only scenario that invalidates the thesis is a worldwide depression severe enough to crater demand. Even the GFC only bought about three years of breathing room before the cycle reasserted itself.
Let’s connect the dots.
