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The Labor Market Is Coughing (Weekly Wrap-Up Friday July 4, 2025)

What It Means for the Dollar, the Fed, and You!

Something strange is happening beneath the hood of the U.S. economy. On the surface, things look fine. The unemployment rate’s low, the economy’s “resilient,” and everyone on TV is still grinning. But a little deeper? There’s a knocking sound. A rattle in the engine.

And it’s getting louder.

This week, George’s custom-built economic warning system started flashing yellow…maybe even red. His proprietary “hard landing indicator,” powered by AI and built to track early signs of recession, is saying what few dare to admit: the labor market is wobbling, and the screws might be coming loose.

What’s it picking up?

The system watches five key gauges: initial jobless claims, non-farm payrolls, truck transportation jobs, construction jobs, and the yield curve.

If these things go south, the rest follows. This week, we saw enough movement in those indicators to ask an uncomfortable question…

Are we already sliding into recession…and just too distracted to notice?

Let’s break this down, one jolt at a time.

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