![[Section Divider Image]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tWxi!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24a52347-d124-4e0d-9a50-ec1c9e5958b2_1320x50.webp "[Section Divider Image]")
The punch bowl is full again.
SpaceX just pulled off the largest IPO in history, priced at $135 a share for a valuation north of $1.75 trillion, and the stock ripped almost 20% out of the gate before settling near $172 by Monday. Crypto perpetual markets are quoting it closer to $2.4 trillion. Over the weekend, the United States and Iran announced a framework to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift the naval blockade. Oil cracked. Yields fell. The Nikkei put up 5.5%. Risk is on, the war premium is bleeding out of the tape, and every desk on Wall Street is doing a victory lap.
Enjoy it. Because while the whole world is staring at one corner of the room, something is quietly catching fire in the other corner. And it only moves in one direction.
Private credit is gating investors again. Not one fund. Three of the biggest names in the business, in the same week, all telling their clients the same thing: sorry, you can’t have your money.
So which is the real story here? The celebration tape, or the cash that won’t come back? Let’s dig in and find out.
